More on weather

While I was watching the radar loops of the storms that moved through eastern Oklahoma last night, I noticed something that I'm not sure is nomal. Some of the squall lines seemed to fragment. I'm not talking about gaps in the line but the forward edge of all segments stay aligned. I'm also not talking about a bow echo that breaks away from the rest of the line. What I saw was a portion break away and move forward a few miles ahead of the rest of the line. I don't know what it means, but I wouldn't be surprised if topography contributed to this happening. I also noticed that as the main squall line approached the Arkansas line, it solidified.


I wish I knew more about interpreting the forecast models. I read the forecast threads on the Stormtrack forum, and much of what they say on there goes over my head when they mention the models. I think I may have a strategy to simplify things.

In spotter training, the NWS mets always mention the four ingredients for severe weather: Moisture, Instability, Lift, and Shear. Moisture is needed because moist air is buoyant, that is, it is less dense than dry air and so it tends to rise. Instability is the tendency of rising air to keep rising once it starts. Lift is a mechanism, such as a front or a hillside, that gives the process a start. These first 3 ingredients will account for rain or basic storms, but shear is needed to make a storm severe. Shear is a change in either wind direction or speed as altitude increases.

If you look at the the initials of those ingredients, they spell MILS. I think that I shall call my system the MILS system.

The models show all kinds of parameters plotted on maps. I could look at the models and try to figure out what all the numbers mean. Or I could look at just these ingredients.

Before I launch this system, I need to do a little study to determine the critical values for each ingredient, and then figure out a way to plot these values on maps. Sounds like a good winter project to get ready for next spring!