And now for the weather...

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK is forecasting severe weather for my area tomorrow, October 17, 2007. That would be a fitting present for my 53rd birthday! It would also help with this disease I have, called SDS. I know it sounds ominous, but it is just Supercell Deprivation Syndrome.

SDS started as a joke on the website of Texas stormchaser Steve Miller. (Not to be confused with the Oklahoma storm chaser, Steve Miller of Moore) Many storm chasers, wannabes, and other severe weather enthusiasts have picked up on this and speak of it as a real disease, and for some, it is a very serious condition. But even those people will probably admit that SDS is a humorous way to deal with an extended lack of severe weather.

I look forward to seeing at least parts of some storms. The last supercell activity I witnessed was in the spring of 2006. I saw a storm near Mannford in northern Creek County that was moving to the northeast into western Tulsa County. It had a vigorous flanking line of towers quickly growing into the main storm tower. I tried to report this to the NWS in Tulsa, but the batteries in my handheld transciever ran out of power. I'll try not to make this mistake tomorrow. I've got one HT charging up right now, and I'll plug in the other one before I go nighty-night.

For those who don't know what a supercell is, it is the type of severe thunderstorm that is most likely to produce a tornado. Not all supercells produce tornados, in fact, most don't. But supercells are always considered severe because they often produce large hail and potentially damaging winds.

You might have seen a supercell and not realized it. The most visible features of a supercell are a main storm tower at its center, an anvil cloud that spreads downwind from the top of the main tower, pouch-like mammatus under the anvil, a rain-free base, and a wall cloud extending down from the rain-free base. If the wall cloud is rotating, the storm could be ready to drop a tornado, or at least a funnel cloud.

This is a "picture" of what a basic supercell looks like, minus the mammatus under the anvil. You can also see a backsheared anvil on the backside of the storm, and an overshooting top, or dome above the anvil. Some supercells will have striations on the main storm tower that will give it a "barber pole" or even a "stacked plates" appearance. These indicate strong rotation in the middle of the storm, and the potential for severe weaher or tornados. I might add these extra features later, but you can see a much, much better illustration of a supercell look around at www.spotterguides.us for a drawing by Charles Doswell. The view is to the northwest, and the storm moves from the southwest to the northwest.

Well, this thread is not intended to be a tutorial on severe weather. I just hope I get to see a real supercell soon instead of a drawing!

Chances are good that I will see something. The Day 2 Convective Outloook shows Tulsa in the middle of a Moderate risk, 45% hatched area! Some of the chasers posting on the Stormtrack forum forecast thread have noted the possibility of busting tomorrow, but we shall see!