Thursday, October 30, 2008

Winter Forecast 2008 - 2009

My winter forecast is: Cold.

No, wait that's too simple. I actually don't do a forecast where I look over data and analyze things. I have hunches, I guess you would call them. They are the product of my subconscious mind processing my observations of weather trends.

Of course the temperatures will get cold in Oklahoma during the winter. Winter days around here are chilly in the afternoon, and cold overnight, sometimes freezing. Sometimes we have freezing temps during the day, but usually when we have a snowstorm, or worse, an ice storm.

Some are expecting a hard winter. I think we are in for a dry one. We've had 2 wet winters in a row, and Oklahoma winters tend to be dry. I believe we are due for a dry winter. We will have a few winter precipitation events, but only one or two will be major. I also believe we will see several episodes of very dry and very cold air coming straight down from the north.

So far, the only observations I have made that support this hunch are these: we have already had 2 freezes in the Tulsa area, but we haven't had much rain since mid-September.

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