Severe Weather Reporting Criteria - AGAIN!

Since I last visited this issue, things haven't changed enough.  I suggest you review my previous treatment of this issue here: Severe Weather Reporting Criteria Revisited.
Towards the end of that post, I recommended the presentation of reporting criteria according to priority instead of starting with the minimums.  This year during the spotter training, I noticed the Tulsa NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Ed Calianese,  listed them according to priority.  So, someone was listening.

Was it enough?  If you listened to the last couple of Skywarn nets in the Tulsa area, you couldn't tell if it made any difference at all.  I did say that this approach would take time to have a significant effect.  I also noticed that the Net Control operators continued to list criteria starting with the minimums.

So, why continue to push the priorities?

I can answer this with a few old quotes.

"First impressions are lasting impressions."  You might have heard this advice when preparing for a job interview, first date, or making a speech.  What that means is that people tend to remember the first things they see and hear when meeting someone new, and they are less likely to remember any changes in someone's appearance or personality.  This not only applies to people.  When someone visits a place they've never been to before, they tend to remember it the way it first appeared to them.

"FIFO - First In, First Out."  This is a business term, usually used in accounting and other business operations.  In accounting, it means that the first documents that come in, such as sales orders or time cards, are processed and recorded first.

"GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out."  This saying started with computer programmers, but at one time it became popular for a while.  It means that even if a program is designed to process information properly, if you feed garbage (bad data or information) into the program, the program will put out bad information.

These quotes give us a general picture of what is going on when someone makes a nuisance report.

When someone hears or sees the minimum criteria first, that is what they tend to remember.  So, when they are out looking at storms, their minds are set on the low end of the spectrum.  Also, many people have a tendency to "lower the bar."  Like I said in my previous post, quarter-sized hail becomes quarter inch hail.  Hail is precipitation, so is rain.  Some might assume that if the NWS wants to hear about hail, they want to hear about rain too.

Just to be sure that everyone is on the right track, let me list, in my own words, the severe weather criteria according to priority:

TORNADO  =  A violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm base to the ground.  A tornado WILL cause damage!  Anything that can cause damage, can also cause injury, or even death.  That is why tornadoes are #1 priority.

PERSISTENTLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD  =  A spinning, isolated lowering of the cloud base.  A persistently rotating wall cloud is one that appears to spin for 10 minutes or more.  Such wall clouds have a higher potential for producing a tornado than non-rotating clouds.  The shear factors that make the wall cloud rotate do indicate the storm is severe, so they should be watched and reported.

FUNNEL CLOUD  =  A spinning cone of condensation not in contact with the ground.  Funnel clouds are NOT tornadoes!  A tornado is always in contact with the ground, and is indicated by a dust or debris swirl on the ground.  If you cannot see the base of a funnel, report it only as a funnel.  Even if you can see the base, and it does not have a dust or debris swirl, report it, because severe conditions will be occurring near the funnel.

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE   Significant damage would include items such as large tree limbs broken off, numerous shingles blown off a roof, or heavy objects lifted into the air.  Reports of significant damage will confirm severe conditions that may have prompted, or might indicate the need for, a severe warning.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING   Significant flooding would include a stream out of its banks, a bridge or roadway washed out, or a roadway that is not visible.  Reports of significant flooding will confirm severe conditions that may have prompted, or might indicate the need for, a flood warning.

HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER   This means if you place the hailstone on top of a quarter, it will completely cover the quarter. The best practice for reporting hail is to measure its diameter with a ruler, tape measure or calipers.  Next best is to compare it to coins or balls: quarters, half-dollars, ping pong or golf balls, etc.

58 MILES AN HOUR WINDS OR GREATER   The best practice for winds is to measure with a handheld or stationary gauge.  (This is one the NWS should reconsider, for in estimating winds, and according to the Beaufort Scale, you cannot distinguish between 50 and 60 MPH winds by visual clues.)

Now, I can see two more factors in why the nuisance reports continue to be a problem.

First, we have people that have a strong desire and drive to get their amateur radio license and get into storm spotting or chasing, but they don't get their license until AFTER the spotter training is over.  They spend their time studying for their license, and miss the spotter training.  So, when they go out to look at storms, they are not familiar with the criteria.

Second, the spotter reference card they used to hand out at the spotter training is available for download online, but it needs SERIOUS updating!

Again the resolution to this problem is time, and patience.  Time to educate, to train, to familiarize people with the best practices.

Storm Warnings and the Public- Revisited

Once again this country has seen a major tornado outbreak, with lives lost, many injuries, and millions (possibly over a billion) dollars worth of property damage. Many people have posted their feelings, and even though I haven't yet shared mine, I do feel the same sadness that others feel.

Because of the high number of deaths, I wouldn't be surprised if the government conducts a study on why so many peopled died. If they don't, they should.

I'm sure that once again warnings would become a major issue. I've posted on this before:

Storm Warnings and the Public

Storm Warnings Revisited - Someone Must Have Listened

I'm not going to rehash those comments here. I don't think I would change much of what I've already said. But I have new thoughts on the issue.

The NWS constantly seeks to improve and to increase the lead time of its warnings. That doesn't need to change, but even with tight budgets, those efforts should receive the most funding we can afford. I believe that the approach to educating the public about watches and warnings does need to change.

I have noticed that several states will have a Severe Weather Awareness Week in conjunction with the NWS. I believe that we need a national campaign as well, to reinforce the state and regional efforts, and to get the attention of more of the general public. I'm not sure if we need a long campaign every year, but a week-long campaign once every 3 - 4 years, with short campaigns of 3 days every year in-between would go a long way towards making the public more aware of the need to keep an eye out for weather hazards. These campaigns need to target schools as well as the general public.

In addition, the way watches and warnings are described need to change. People need to know that warnings are ACTION statements - that if you are in an area named in a warning, you need to do something to ensure your own safety, and the safety of family, friends, co-workers, etc. Watches are only ADVISORY statements - that the NWS sees that severe weather is possible in the watch area, and you should monitor the media for warnings, or keep an eye open for threatening conditions at your location.

So far, the Awareness campaigns I have seen have been conducted by state authorities and local NWS offices. The only time I see a non-government entity involved in a campaign, is when McDonalds does their McReady program, or a local radio or TV station puts on a campaign targeted at their audience. This doesn't mean that non-governmental organizations don't conduct any campaigns, it's just that I don't know of any. I know the American Red Cross publishes booklets and pamphlets about severe weather, but I don't know if they have an organized effort to promote severe weather awareness. A campaign involving NGO's, such as the Red Cross, the Salvation Army, ham radio clubs, neighborhood or homeowners associations, etc., could have a bigger impact because the public might see these people as ordinary people and not as bureaucrats and politicians that want to tell people what to do.

I'm not sure of what else could be or should be done. But I do know that we do need to do something different. Too many people are dying needlessly.

Winter & Spring Weather

Snow began falling on Kiefer OK this afternoon (29 DEC 09) a little before 5 PM, and it is still coming down. This is on top of what remains from the Christmas Eve Blizzard. Both the current system and the blizzard moved SW to NE. Doesn't that sound familiar?

The systems that create the strongest severe springtime thunderstorms usually travel the same direction. What causes this is a trough will set up to the west of the Great Plains, and this makes the jet stream dip to the south around the trough, creating a "valley" or "long wave" in the jet stream pattern. As the jet stream flows from SW to NE, it sets up smaller low pressure centers that move along the jet stream. These "short waves" become the nuclei of severe weather systems.

Reports came out earlier that an El Nino was forming. El Ninos change weather patterns. If an El Nino is responsible for the current pattern, it might persist into and throughout the spring. We could be in for an active severe weather season in 2010.

I have a disease...

Yes, I have a disease, I've had it for a long time, and I will probably never get over it. If you think that's bad, well, I don't want to get over it! The disease is known as SDS - Supercell Deprivation Syndrome.

This disease has no cure, but it does have treatments. The clinic that provides these treatments is Tornado Alley. The ingredients used to make these treatments are deep layers of moist air, instability, lift and shear. These ingredients combine to create cumulus towers, anvils, flanking lines, lightning, wall clouds, and sometimes tornadoes. The side effects of these treatments are hail, heavy rain, sometimes flooding, sometimes damage, sometimes death.

No one likes the last two side effects. That's why many storm chasers and all spotters participate in the severe weather warning process by reporting what they see to the National Weather Service and/or local emergency authorities and/or local media.

I almost got a treatment Tuesday. Local TV stations first mentioned the possibility of severe weather that day. Sunday and Monday, I began looking at the Storm Prediction Center's website for Convective Outlooks. Sure enough they showed a moderate risk for most of SE OK, a good chunk of NE TX, and parts of western AR, and NW LA.

The fist significant storm of the day developed west of OKC, dropped a tornado on Edmond, tracked on up to the NNE, dropped tornadoes on Logan and Pawnee Counties, and kept on across Osage and Washington Counties into KS. It was TOR warned all the way, but at the most it produced a rotating wall cloud over portions of Osage Co. Another tornado later tracked in from TX, and hit the town of Lone Grove to the west of Ardmore. The other tornadoes did some damage, and not many injuries, but the last one killed 9 people. I am not happy to hear about that.

I listened to much of the action on ham radio. I had heard about the Edmond tornado, watched some streaming video on chasertv.com, and went outside to take a look to see how things were shaping up in the teeming metropolis of Kiefer, and then laid down for around an hour. By the time I got up, the Edmond storm was already moving into Payne Co. on its way to Pawnee Co. I tried to stay in my room and keep up on the action, but I started to feel chilly. The storms that were headed to Kiefer were still miles away to the south. I wound up staying in the front room close to the fire, and watched NCIS and The Mentalist with my mom. The Mentalist ought to be called The Mental Case. Sometime during those shows, the storms moved in. We got some lightning, thunder, hail (not big enough to report), and mostly heavy rain. Still have some water pooled in the ruts in the strip of dirt and gravel I call a driveway.

So, I didn't get to see anything stormwise. It was too dark out by the time things got interesting locally. I'm probably not going to do any spotting after dark, except from inside my house.

The last treatment for my SDS was on June 1, 2008. While working the Tulsa Tough rest stop at the Kiefer City Park, I heard reports of storms hitting Kellyville to the west about 8 - 9 miles. After the rest stop closed down down and the volunteers working the stop had packed up and left, the storms were close to Kiefer. I drove a mile east to the new school complex to get a better view, away from the ridgeline directly to the west. I watched a shallow wall cloud move from NNW to SSE. If it didn't pass directly over Kiefer, it passed just to the west. On the short drive home, I passed through heavy rain and hail. Despite seeing a supercell feature (wall cloud), I didn't report anything. The wall cloud was too shallow and shrinking as it moved by, so I knew the storm was diminishing.

Oh, well, storm season hasn't officially begun yet. Actually, it never really goes away. It just moves on to other parts of the country and sometimes produces snow or ice storms or hurricanes instead of severe thunderstorms.