Severe Weather Reporting Criteria - AGAIN!

Since I last visited this issue, things haven't changed enough.  I suggest you review my previous treatment of this issue here: Severe Weather Reporting Criteria Revisited.
Towards the end of that post, I recommended the presentation of reporting criteria according to priority instead of starting with the minimums.  This year during the spotter training, I noticed the Tulsa NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Ed Calianese,  listed them according to priority.  So, someone was listening.

Was it enough?  If you listened to the last couple of Skywarn nets in the Tulsa area, you couldn't tell if it made any difference at all.  I did say that this approach would take time to have a significant effect.  I also noticed that the Net Control operators continued to list criteria starting with the minimums.

So, why continue to push the priorities?

I can answer this with a few old quotes.

"First impressions are lasting impressions."  You might have heard this advice when preparing for a job interview, first date, or making a speech.  What that means is that people tend to remember the first things they see and hear when meeting someone new, and they are less likely to remember any changes in someone's appearance or personality.  This not only applies to people.  When someone visits a place they've never been to before, they tend to remember it the way it first appeared to them.

"FIFO - First In, First Out."  This is a business term, usually used in accounting and other business operations.  In accounting, it means that the first documents that come in, such as sales orders or time cards, are processed and recorded first.

"GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out."  This saying started with computer programmers, but at one time it became popular for a while.  It means that even if a program is designed to process information properly, if you feed garbage (bad data or information) into the program, the program will put out bad information.

These quotes give us a general picture of what is going on when someone makes a nuisance report.

When someone hears or sees the minimum criteria first, that is what they tend to remember.  So, when they are out looking at storms, their minds are set on the low end of the spectrum.  Also, many people have a tendency to "lower the bar."  Like I said in my previous post, quarter-sized hail becomes quarter inch hail.  Hail is precipitation, so is rain.  Some might assume that if the NWS wants to hear about hail, they want to hear about rain too.

Just to be sure that everyone is on the right track, let me list, in my own words, the severe weather criteria according to priority:

TORNADO  =  A violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm base to the ground.  A tornado WILL cause damage!  Anything that can cause damage, can also cause injury, or even death.  That is why tornadoes are #1 priority.

PERSISTENTLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD  =  A spinning, isolated lowering of the cloud base.  A persistently rotating wall cloud is one that appears to spin for 10 minutes or more.  Such wall clouds have a higher potential for producing a tornado than non-rotating clouds.  The shear factors that make the wall cloud rotate do indicate the storm is severe, so they should be watched and reported.

FUNNEL CLOUD  =  A spinning cone of condensation not in contact with the ground.  Funnel clouds are NOT tornadoes!  A tornado is always in contact with the ground, and is indicated by a dust or debris swirl on the ground.  If you cannot see the base of a funnel, report it only as a funnel.  Even if you can see the base, and it does not have a dust or debris swirl, report it, because severe conditions will be occurring near the funnel.

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE   Significant damage would include items such as large tree limbs broken off, numerous shingles blown off a roof, or heavy objects lifted into the air.  Reports of significant damage will confirm severe conditions that may have prompted, or might indicate the need for, a severe warning.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING   Significant flooding would include a stream out of its banks, a bridge or roadway washed out, or a roadway that is not visible.  Reports of significant flooding will confirm severe conditions that may have prompted, or might indicate the need for, a flood warning.

HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER   This means if you place the hailstone on top of a quarter, it will completely cover the quarter. The best practice for reporting hail is to measure its diameter with a ruler, tape measure or calipers.  Next best is to compare it to coins or balls: quarters, half-dollars, ping pong or golf balls, etc.

58 MILES AN HOUR WINDS OR GREATER   The best practice for winds is to measure with a handheld or stationary gauge.  (This is one the NWS should reconsider, for in estimating winds, and according to the Beaufort Scale, you cannot distinguish between 50 and 60 MPH winds by visual clues.)

Now, I can see two more factors in why the nuisance reports continue to be a problem.

First, we have people that have a strong desire and drive to get their amateur radio license and get into storm spotting or chasing, but they don't get their license until AFTER the spotter training is over.  They spend their time studying for their license, and miss the spotter training.  So, when they go out to look at storms, they are not familiar with the criteria.

Second, the spotter reference card they used to hand out at the spotter training is available for download online, but it needs SERIOUS updating!

Again the resolution to this problem is time, and patience.  Time to educate, to train, to familiarize people with the best practices.

Storm Warnings and the Public- Revisited

Once again this country has seen a major tornado outbreak, with lives lost, many injuries, and millions (possibly over a billion) dollars worth of property damage. Many people have posted their feelings, and even though I haven't yet shared mine, I do feel the same sadness that others feel.

Because of the high number of deaths, I wouldn't be surprised if the government conducts a study on why so many peopled died. If they don't, they should.

I'm sure that once again warnings would become a major issue. I've posted on this before:

Storm Warnings and the Public

Storm Warnings Revisited - Someone Must Have Listened

I'm not going to rehash those comments here. I don't think I would change much of what I've already said. But I have new thoughts on the issue.

The NWS constantly seeks to improve and to increase the lead time of its warnings. That doesn't need to change, but even with tight budgets, those efforts should receive the most funding we can afford. I believe that the approach to educating the public about watches and warnings does need to change.

I have noticed that several states will have a Severe Weather Awareness Week in conjunction with the NWS. I believe that we need a national campaign as well, to reinforce the state and regional efforts, and to get the attention of more of the general public. I'm not sure if we need a long campaign every year, but a week-long campaign once every 3 - 4 years, with short campaigns of 3 days every year in-between would go a long way towards making the public more aware of the need to keep an eye out for weather hazards. These campaigns need to target schools as well as the general public.

In addition, the way watches and warnings are described need to change. People need to know that warnings are ACTION statements - that if you are in an area named in a warning, you need to do something to ensure your own safety, and the safety of family, friends, co-workers, etc. Watches are only ADVISORY statements - that the NWS sees that severe weather is possible in the watch area, and you should monitor the media for warnings, or keep an eye open for threatening conditions at your location.

So far, the Awareness campaigns I have seen have been conducted by state authorities and local NWS offices. The only time I see a non-government entity involved in a campaign, is when McDonalds does their McReady program, or a local radio or TV station puts on a campaign targeted at their audience. This doesn't mean that non-governmental organizations don't conduct any campaigns, it's just that I don't know of any. I know the American Red Cross publishes booklets and pamphlets about severe weather, but I don't know if they have an organized effort to promote severe weather awareness. A campaign involving NGO's, such as the Red Cross, the Salvation Army, ham radio clubs, neighborhood or homeowners associations, etc., could have a bigger impact because the public might see these people as ordinary people and not as bureaucrats and politicians that want to tell people what to do.

I'm not sure of what else could be or should be done. But I do know that we do need to do something different. Too many people are dying needlessly.

Storm Warnings Revisited - Someone Must Have Listened

Almost 2 years ago, I wrote a piece about severe thunderstorm warnings, and how I thought that the public tends to disregard warnings because the warning criteria were too low. The low criteria caused too many warnings issued where the storms did no damage. People came to expect that storms wouldn't do anything serious, and then when a damaging storm did occur, no one expected any damage would happen. If you want to see the entire post, you will find it here:

http://randomcontact.blogspot.com/2008/02/storm-warnings-and-public.html.

Well, someone must have listened. It doesn't matter if they listened to me or to the others out there that have said the same thing, but someone must have listened. Here's an excerpt from an NWS Public Information Statement:

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CRITERION FOR HAIL CHANGING...

TO: SUBSCRIBERS: NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES



Area
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CHANGE IN MINIMUM HAIL SIZE CRITERION



Description

FOR ISSUING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING /SVR/
AND SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT /SVS/ PRODUCTS
EFFECTIVE JANUARY 5 2010

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JANUARY 5 2010 AT 0001 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
/UTC/...601 PM CST JANUARY 4 2010...ALL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES /WFOS/ WILL OPERATIONALLY CHANGE THE MINIMUM HAIL SIZE CRITERION USED TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING /SVR/ AND SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT /SVS/ PRODUCTS FROM 3/4 INCH /PENNY/ DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL TO 1 INCH /QUARTER/ DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

NO CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE SVR AND SVS PRODUCT WIND CRITERION OF WIND GUSTS EQUAL TO OR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS /58 MPH/.

I will be watching things this spring to see how effective this change will be. Stay tuned for further details.

Winter & Spring Weather

Snow began falling on Kiefer OK this afternoon (29 DEC 09) a little before 5 PM, and it is still coming down. This is on top of what remains from the Christmas Eve Blizzard. Both the current system and the blizzard moved SW to NE. Doesn't that sound familiar?

The systems that create the strongest severe springtime thunderstorms usually travel the same direction. What causes this is a trough will set up to the west of the Great Plains, and this makes the jet stream dip to the south around the trough, creating a "valley" or "long wave" in the jet stream pattern. As the jet stream flows from SW to NE, it sets up smaller low pressure centers that move along the jet stream. These "short waves" become the nuclei of severe weather systems.

Reports came out earlier that an El Nino was forming. El Ninos change weather patterns. If an El Nino is responsible for the current pattern, it might persist into and throughout the spring. We could be in for an active severe weather season in 2010.

Not a bad birthday

Well, I didn't get to see much today in the way of directly observing severe weather. But I did get to follow some of the coverage of storms that blew through my area. I am still listening to the weather net on the Tulsa Amateur Radio Club's UHF link system at this time (2200 CDT). Storms have moved out of Okahoma, and I suspect the net will end soon.

My problem with storm watching right now is a real estate issue - location, location, location! I live close to the bottom of a ridge line that runs mostly north and south, and the ridge is to my west. Another ridge that runs east and west lies to my north. The ground to my east gently slopes uphill, but the treeline of a creek sits about half a block away. Lots of trees to the south, too. So, unless something is almost right on top me, I can't see diddly, or the storms!

Not long after 1 PM, I made my run (walk, actually) to the PO and then headed towards one of the two convenience store for something for a special b-day lunch. As I approached the local car wash, I noticed a young police officer WASHING a brand new patrol unit! I stopped and told him he must have really wanted it to storm! We talked for a bit about the storm threat for today. I had talked to him some last year when I volunteered to do some spotting for the town. (That hasn't worked out so well, due to my limited transportation options.) I found out he is taking over as Chief for a year as the regular Chief is going to Afghanistan for a year as a consultant to the police forces there. I told him that I might be able to get a car soon, and then I can start working on helping the town put together a spotting program.

Later, as I headed south down my street, I could feel outflow from a cell to my southwest hit me in the face. When I got home and woke up my computer, it showed me the Press Cntrl-Alt-Del screen. A power spike must have struck while I was away.

Anyway, I enjoyed a lunch of salad, boneless chicken strips and nacho cheese flavored tortilla chips. The first wave, mostly rain, moved through soon afterwards. I didn't bother to look at it bacause a gap developed in the squall line and guess where the gap headed - right at Kiefer. Redevlopment filled in the line, but with rain that lasted a while. Skies cleared between 4 and 6 PM, and then next wave moved in.

Storms that first developed west of I-35 moved into Pawnee and Osage Cos. A crescent shaped line popped up in Creek Co. south of I-44 with the center of the arc near Bristow in the middle of the county. This crescent moved northeast towards Sapulpa and Sand Springs. Part of this storm developed a funnel between Sapulpa, Sand Springs, and Tulsa.
Soon afterwards, around 7 PM, straightline winds lifted, then dropped a large tent and its poles in west Tulsa in a park on the Arkansas River. A private, corporate event was going on at the time in connection with Tulsa's Octoberfest, and about 40 people were injured. The genereal manager of KTUL-TV, the local ABC affliate, was there and reported from the scene. One of my fellow hams, Fred Williams, KD5NBR, and a chaser for the station, reported in and also sent in video of the first responders and the downed tent.
The sad irony of the Octoberfest incident is that Jim Giles, the chief meteorologist for KOTV, the CBS affliate, had been very involved with the event in the past. He passed away late last year, and he had worked so hard throughout his career to protect lives.

Anyway, in between the storms, I had pizza, which has been a rare treat for me the last two years.

I didn't get any presents, unless you count the pizza my Mom paid for, and she gave me a handmade 'card'. That doesn't matter much, as I pretty much enjoyed myself today. In case you're wondering how old I am, I've reached the point where I don't mind having a birthday, I just don't care to count them anymore!

And now for the weather...

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK is forecasting severe weather for my area tomorrow, October 17, 2007. That would be a fitting present for my 53rd birthday! It would also help with this disease I have, called SDS. I know it sounds ominous, but it is just Supercell Deprivation Syndrome.

SDS started as a joke on the website of Texas stormchaser Steve Miller. (Not to be confused with the Oklahoma storm chaser, Steve Miller of Moore) Many storm chasers, wannabes, and other severe weather enthusiasts have picked up on this and speak of it as a real disease, and for some, it is a very serious condition. But even those people will probably admit that SDS is a humorous way to deal with an extended lack of severe weather.

I look forward to seeing at least parts of some storms. The last supercell activity I witnessed was in the spring of 2006. I saw a storm near Mannford in northern Creek County that was moving to the northeast into western Tulsa County. It had a vigorous flanking line of towers quickly growing into the main storm tower. I tried to report this to the NWS in Tulsa, but the batteries in my handheld transciever ran out of power. I'll try not to make this mistake tomorrow. I've got one HT charging up right now, and I'll plug in the other one before I go nighty-night.

For those who don't know what a supercell is, it is the type of severe thunderstorm that is most likely to produce a tornado. Not all supercells produce tornados, in fact, most don't. But supercells are always considered severe because they often produce large hail and potentially damaging winds.

You might have seen a supercell and not realized it. The most visible features of a supercell are a main storm tower at its center, an anvil cloud that spreads downwind from the top of the main tower, pouch-like mammatus under the anvil, a rain-free base, and a wall cloud extending down from the rain-free base. If the wall cloud is rotating, the storm could be ready to drop a tornado, or at least a funnel cloud.

This is a "picture" of what a basic supercell looks like, minus the mammatus under the anvil. You can also see a backsheared anvil on the backside of the storm, and an overshooting top, or dome above the anvil. Some supercells will have striations on the main storm tower that will give it a "barber pole" or even a "stacked plates" appearance. These indicate strong rotation in the middle of the storm, and the potential for severe weaher or tornados. I might add these extra features later, but you can see a much, much better illustration of a supercell look around at www.spotterguides.us for a drawing by Charles Doswell. The view is to the northwest, and the storm moves from the southwest to the northwest.

Well, this thread is not intended to be a tutorial on severe weather. I just hope I get to see a real supercell soon instead of a drawing!

Chances are good that I will see something. The Day 2 Convective Outloook shows Tulsa in the middle of a Moderate risk, 45% hatched area! Some of the chasers posting on the Stormtrack forum forecast thread have noted the possibility of busting tomorrow, but we shall see!