Winter Forecast 2008 - 2009

My winter forecast is: Cold.

No, wait that's too simple. I actually don't do a forecast where I look over data and analyze things. I have hunches, I guess you would call them. They are the product of my subconscious mind processing my observations of weather trends.

Of course the temperatures will get cold in Oklahoma during the winter. Winter days around here are chilly in the afternoon, and cold overnight, sometimes freezing. Sometimes we have freezing temps during the day, but usually when we have a snowstorm, or worse, an ice storm.

Some are expecting a hard winter. I think we are in for a dry one. We've had 2 wet winters in a row, and Oklahoma winters tend to be dry. I believe we are due for a dry winter. We will have a few winter precipitation events, but only one or two will be major. I also believe we will see several episodes of very dry and very cold air coming straight down from the north.

So far, the only observations I have made that support this hunch are these: we have already had 2 freezes in the Tulsa area, but we haven't had much rain since mid-September.

Winter Weather Woes

You might have heard of the ice storm that knocked out electricity to much of Tulsa, Tulsa County, and nearby areas. Fortunately for me, I only experienced brief blink-outs, and sometimes when they happened repeatedly, I had to leave the computer off for a while. The worst effect on me is that electricity is still out at my employer's main office, and they have not been able to forward any calls to me. My employer did contact the software distributor and gave them my number, but so far I've received only one call.

The only other complaint about winter I have is the cold temperatures. My mucous membranes don't like it. I can see the beauty in snow and even a glaze of ice. Skiing, snowboarding and skating do look like fun. I can see why some people like winter, but the rest of us are sane.

Changes

The weather this past week has been cooler, so Fall is definitely here. I doubt that we will have any more days in the 80's until next spring, unless we get a tropical system moving right over us. That is possible, but I doubt it. Last winter was wet, this whole year overall has been wet. We had several dry years before this one, and a year ago the entire state of Oklahoma was under a ban on outdoors burning. The ban even included rules for outdoor welding. Wildfires affected large parts of the Tulsa area, including some towns close to me. I'm glad that threat is over.

Many people look forward to winter weather, but I don't! I can handle heavy rain, but I prefer to do without snow, sleet, and ice. Snow I can live with if I have to. But sleet and ice are another matter.

We usually don't get much sleet around here. When it does happen, it doesn't build up much before it turns onto snow. Back in January or February, we had a winter storm that laid down about 3-4 inches of sleet. It looked like snow, but it sure wasn't! I managed to get outside and on the ground right in front of my house where there was a strip that was bare because it was on the sheltered side of the house. I noticed the sun had loosened up a corner of the sleet on top of the concrete porch. I took my shovel and pried off a chunk and tossed it out onto the yard. It didn't sink like it would have it had landed on snow. It just hit with a thud and slid. That sleet pretty much kept me inside the house for the better part of two weeks.

The part of winter that affects me the most is the cold. My mucous membranes defintely do not like the cold! I usually have at least one bad cold every winter.

The weather is not the only thing that is changing at my house. I haven't said much about my family or home life. I live with my mother in a house that once belonged to my grandfather.

My uncle was staying with my grandfather, then my uncle got sick and died. He had heart problems and I believe that's what did him in. My granfather needed someone to stay with him, I was out of a job, my mother and I were living in a garage apartment in Sapulpa and she was paying the rent. We moved in with my grandfather because it was a mutually beneficial arrangement for all of us. My grandfather left the house to Mom, even though she was not his daughter.

Mom has retired since then, and about 3 - 4 years ago she began volunteering to spend Sunday nights at a Christian women's halfway house in Sapulpa. She has been pretty steady there since the place opened. She was the first volunteer they called on to spend the night when their first resident came in. She has volunteered on other nights when they needed someone.

Things have changed at that place, and not for the better. Mom will be spending her last Sunday night there tomorrow night. I think she would like to continue, but she does not agree with some of the things they do, and going there has become a burden. I am concerned, because that place has helped several women that have become Mom's friends. I hope the place doesn't close. Maybe Mom's leaving will send them a signal that they need to change.

I was used to having the house to myself on Sunday nights. I usually did things that I normally wouldnt' do when she was home, because she wasn't in my way. Oh, well, I'll learn to adjust.